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Animal Conservation

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Animal Conservation's content profile, based on 13 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Rapid population decline of Egyptian fruit bats on Cyprus

Dechmann, D. K. N.; Akre, K. L.; de Wit, L. A.; Kafkaletou Diez, A. G. G.; Mandl, I.; Makridou, Z.; Michael, K.; O'Mara, M. T.; Papastylianou, K.; Wikelski, M.; Frick, W. F.

2026-06-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.05.728241 medRxiv
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Preventing extirpations requires timely detection of rapid declines and immediate conservation response. Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus) are globally listed as Least Concern, but their genetically isolated population in Cyprus is Critically Endangered. We document a severe ongoing decline of the Cypriot R. aegyptiacus population observed during standardized counts at major roost sites. April 2024 counts at four principal roosts recorded 4633 bats. Surveys in December 2025 documented 554 individuals across the same sites. April 2026 counts revealed a 90.1% decline since April 2024. Additionally, we found numerous dead bats at three roosts, and residents across the island reported dead bats, suggesting an acute mortality event beginning in early 2025. The cause remains unknown. Given the magnitude and pace of decline, this population potentially faces imminent extirpation. We recommend immediate action to protect roosting and foraging habitat, along with coordinated diagnostics, expedited research permits, standardized monitoring, and technical collaboration to identify and mitigate underlying causes of high mortality.

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Predation of small nocturnal primates (Microcebus) on Madagascar; insights into predator preferences in Andohahela National Park

Hyde Roberts, S.; Segami, J. C.; Harinala, V. J. N.; Rajemison, B.; Rasoarinoro, E.; Goodman, S. M.; Yoder, A. D.

2026-08-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.22.746414 medRxiv
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Predation is a major selective force shaping lemur behaviour and population dynamics, yet direct observations remain rare, particularly for small nocturnal species. Here, we document predation on mouse lemurs (Microcebus spp., Cheirogaleidae) in Andohahela National Park, south-eastern Madagascar, and using complementary evidence from radio-telemetry and owl pellet analyses. Two radio-collared individuals were confirmed as prey of endemic snakes, Ithycyphus oursi and Madagascarophis meridionalis (both Pseudoxyrhophiidae), representing the first documented records of Microcebus predation by these species. Examination of owl pellets and prey remains from three sites and from three owl species revealed a single predation event by Asio madagascariensis (Strigidae), likely involving M. tanosi, no evidence of mouse lemur predation by Tyto alba (Tytonidae) despite high local prey availability, and a single and first predation record from Athene superciliaris (Strigidae). Material from A. superciliaris roosts was otherwise dominated by invertebrates, indicating that primate predation is likely opportunistic. Together, these findings expand the known predator guild of mouse lemurs and suggest that snake predation is rarely detected, and its contribution to mouse lemur mortality and population dynamics is likely underestimated. Our findings demonstrate how combining behavioural field observations with dietary evidence can uncover otherwise undetected predation events and clarify predator prey relationships in nocturnal primates.

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Continent-wide calibration of camera-trap metrics reveals low population densities in the European wildcat

Nogueira, C.; Alves, B. S. G.; Anile, S.; Barona, J.; Bastianelli, M. L.; Burgos, T.; Catello, M.; Curveira-Santos, G.; Diaz-Ruiz, F.; Federico, P.; Fiderer, C.; Flezar, U.; Gerngross, P.; Gil-Sanchez, J. M.; Henrich, M.; Hernandez-Hernandez, J.; Heurich, M.; Krofel, M.; Maronde, L.; Matias, G.; Moeller, A. K.; Molinari-Jobin, A.; Peters, A.; Port, M.; Premier, J.; Rocha, F.; Sanchez-Cerda, M.; Sayol, F.; Vilella, M.; Virgos, E.; Zimmermann, F.; Ferreras, P.; Jimenez, J.; Monterroso, P.

2026-07-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.06.734798 medRxiv
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Effective conservation depends on demographic metrics that reliably reflect species status, particularly population abundance. For elusive species occurring at low densities, however, such metrics remain difficult to obtain. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are the standardized approach for estimating density in marked populations, but their data requirements, especially the need for multiple spatial recaptures across individuals, often limit applicability in small or data-poor populations. This constraint has resulted in knowledge gaps for some of the most vulnerable species, undermining evidence-based conservation planning and management. Using camera-trap data and SCR-derived density estimates from data-rich populations, we evaluated alternative, less data-demanding metrics and tested the hypothesis: Space to Event (STE), Mean Local Abundance (MLA), and Relative Abundance Index (RAI) exhibit predictable relationships with SCR-derived density; if supported, these metrics can reliably estimate density in populations where SCR models cannot be implemented. We applied this framework to the European wildcat (Felis silvestris), an elusive small felid with highly fragmented populations across Europe, for which density estimates are largely lacking despite growing conservation concern. Across 21 study areas spanning most of the species' range, our results indicate that European wildcats generally occur at lower densities than previously reported. SCR-derived estimates (n=10) averaged 10.32 {+/-} 11.56 inds/100km2, while STE enabled density estimation in five additional data-poor areas (mean 5.52 {+/-} 5.33 inds/100km2). STE showed a strong linear relationship with SCR-derived density (R2=0.98), supporting its use as a viable alternative when SCR is infeasible, although it tended to underestimate compared to SCR, especially at higher densities. In contrast, MLA and RAI showed weaker and non-linear relationships with SCR-derived density (R2=0.65), indicating substantially lower explanatory power and suggesting their estimates are more strongly influenced by confounding processes. By explicitly calibrating alternative metrics across a wide density gradient throughout most of the species' distribution, this study provides a transferable methodological framework for estimating density in low-density wildlife populations and the first continent-wide, standardized density assessment of a carnivore species. From a management perspective, our findings identify populations that may be most vulnerable, particularly those with the lowest densities, and highlight the need to prioritize absolute abundance monitoring.

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Biodiversity knowledge and conservation shortfalls in Rivulidae fishes

Costa, J. H. A. d.; Guedes, G. H. S.

2026-07-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.04.736495 medRxiv
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The biodiversity crisis is exacerbated by persistent gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and conservation knowledge. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of Linnean, Wallacean, and conservation shortfalls in Rivulidae (Cyprinodontiformes), one of the most diverse families of Neotropical freshwater fishes. To this end, an extensive dataset was compiled, comprising 494 valid species, 51 synonyms, 3,419 occurrence records, and information on life cycle, distribution, and conservation status. The Linnean shortfall remains open: after 1975, the rate of species description increased sharply, and estimates indicate that 103 species remain undescribed (95% CI: 53-212). The year of species description was influenced by detectability and accessibility factors, with larger species, more widely distributed species, and species occurring in more densely populated areas being described earlier. The Wallacean shortfall was broad and spatially uneven: only 5.34% of the region was considered adequately sampled. The conservation shortfall was also substantial: 179 species are threatened with extinction, 69 species remain Not Evaluated, and 62 are Data Deficient. The mean time between taxonomic description and first IUCN extinction-risk assessment was 25.7 years. Moreover, 59.9% of species have no records within protected areas, including 69.3% of threatened species. These findings synthesize an urgent challenge: biodiversity knowledge and conservation shortfalls must be overcome simultaneously to protect species that are still being discovered, remain poorly documented spatially, and are restricted to habitats under intense anthropogenic pressure. The conservation of Rivulidae cannot wait for complete knowledge; action amid uncertainty is necessary to prevent both known and unknown species from disappearing.

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Extreme spatial plasticity in Italian wolves: ecological determinants of range size and movement patterns across heterogeneous landscapes

Cavazza, S.; Brogi, R.; Zanni, M.; Buelli, C.; Berzi, D.; Luccarini, S.; Costanzi, L.; Tirapelle, C.; Cappai, N.; Bongi, P.; Del Frate, M.; Vettorazzo, E.; Apollonio, M.

2026-06-16 animal behavior and cognition 10.64898/2026.06.12.731796 medRxiv
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As wolves (Canis lupus) recolonize diverse environments, the extent to which ecological and individual factors shape their spatial behaviour remains insufficiently understood. Italy, where wolf recovery began earlier than elsewhere in Europe and spans highly heterogeneous landscapes, offers an opportunity to explore patterns relevant to future European scenarios. We analysed variation in home range size and movement patterns using GPS data from 19 wolves monitored between 2019 and 2025 across five study areas representing a broad environmental gradient. Continuous-time movement modelling was used to estimate home range size and distance travelled. Home range size varied markedly among areas, with annual averages for pack-member wolves ranging from 35 to 185 km2. The smallest ranges occurred where wolves had been established for longer and/or where prey availability was higher, suggesting that both intraspecific competition and resource abundance influence space use. Wolves expanded their ranges in winter and in more urbanized landscapes. Pack members consistently had smaller home ranges than floaters, and among floaters, females showed slightly larger ranges than males. Distance travelled also differed significantly across areas (local averages 25-53 km/day) but showed no significant association with individual traits. Three dispersal events were documented, two of which resulted in successful pair formation and subsequent reproduction. Overall, our results provide a broad overview of wolf spatial behaviour in contemporary Italian landscapes and offer insights relevant to the management of wolf populations across Europe.

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Matching lynx population estimates to management scale: conservation science vs politics in the western Swiss Alps

Verschueren, S.; Braunisch, V.; Debons, V.; Arlettaz, R.

2026-08-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.25.747176 medRxiv
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Reliable population estimates are essential for wildlife management, yet monitoring schemes often do not match the administrative scale at which decisions are made. We illustrate this challenge using the Eurasian lynx in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, where official state monitoring is fragmented across three reference areas surveyed in different years. We analyzed three winters (2023-2026) of independent, canton-wide camera trap data, recording 899 independent lynx captures (27, 31 and 34 adults per winter). Lynx distribution and reproduction concentrated in the Northwest and connected to the thriving Pre-alpine populations. Density modelling for 2025/2026 estimated 37 independent lynx (95% CI: 26-52) on the whole cantonal territory, corresponding to a density of 1.09 (0.77-1.56) individuals per 100 km2. These estimates are substantially below the figures improperly extrapolated from a cross-cantonal reference area and conveyed by political authorities. Future lynx management decisions should be rooted in scientifically sound, scale-relevant information.

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Global threat abatement potential for terrestrial vertebrates

Ridley, F. A.; Bennun, L.; Brooks, T. M.; Butchart, S. H. M.; Dales, M. W.; Hawkins, F.; Jimenez, R. R.; Macfarlane, N. B. W.; Mcgowan, P. J.; Starnes, T.; Tarr, S.; Turner, J. A.; Baisero, D.; Chanson, J.; Cox, N.; Menon, V.; Neam, K.; Pacifici, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Rodriguez, J. P.; Rondinini, C.; Mair, L.

2026-06-16 zoology 10.64898/2026.06.12.731583 medRxiv
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1.AimThe Species Threat Abatement and Restoration (STAR) metric was developed to support setting and measuring progress towards science-based targets for species conservation, in alignment with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The STAR metric quantifies the potential reduction in species global extinction risk achievable through actions to abate threats (START) and restore habitat (STARR). The STAR metric is used across multiple sectors to assess contributions to nature-positive species outcomes and implement action for biodiversity. Here we present a substantially enhanced global estimate of START for terrestrial vertebrates. Developed in response to user demand, this work integrates advancements in methodology and data quality, increased spatial resolution, and addition of reptile species. LocationGlobal Time PeriodCurrent Major taxa studiedTerrestrial vertebrates MethodsSTART was estimated at 1km2 resolution for 9,100 species of threatened and Near Threatened birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles, using IUCN Red List assessments (version 2025-1) and area of habitat (AOH) maps generated using an advanced data-driven methodology and satellite-derived land-cover data. AOH maps were validated using a two-stage protocol using species observation data. ResultsThe six countries with the highest estimated START scores, and therefore the largest individual potential to reduce global extinction risk via tackling threats nationally were Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia, Mexico, Ecuador and Colombia (each contributing over 5% of global estimated START). The threat with the greatest individual potential to reduce extinction risk was annual and perennial non-timber crops (21.2% of global START). Main conclusionsTargeted actions to tackle a few high-impact threats in a few discrete locations, and cumulative effort across multiple areas with lower individual potential, are both required to meaningfully reduce species extinction risk through threat abatement. This global scale estimation of START enables consistent scoping of conservation opportunity over large areas and provides the critical initial data to support planning and action.

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Birds protected in Europe, overlooked in Africa: conservation synergies between African primates and wintering Afro-Palearctic migratory birds

Kiribou, I. A. R.; Mucyo, J. P. S.; Kazaba, P. K.; Kamga, S. M.; Kuehl, H. S.; Junker, J.; Sasse, T.; Heinicke, S.

2026-07-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.20.739569 medRxiv
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Primates are frequent targets of international conservation efforts, due to their anthropological significance and function as biodiversity conservation flagship species. Afro-Palearctic migratory birds receive considerable conservation attention in their breeding habitats, but much less in their wintering areas. Good wintering habitat conditions are, however, crucial for long-term population viability. Integrating complementary conservation efforts for these taxa may provide substantial co-benefits. Here, we evaluate the spatial, ecological, and conservation congruence between 248 Afro-Palearctic migratory bird and 213 African primate species to identify potential synergies in intercontinental conservation efforts. The wintering areas of 218 migratory bird species overlap with primate ranges. Up to 125 Afro-Palearctic migratory bird species co-occur with at least one primate species locally and highest regional cross-taxon richness occurs in forest-savanna ecotones in West Africa and eastern DRC. Agriculture and hunting threaten both taxa (88-97% of primate and 59-70% of bird species). Several conservation interventions have demonstrated effectiveness for both taxa, particularly habitat protection and hunting reduction. We propose three policy priorities: strengthening cross-taxa monitoring within existing primate research infrastructure, improving the conservation evidence base in the African context, and creating financing synergies that allow conservation investments to simultaneously benefit both taxa.

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Mortality causes and annual survival rates of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes).

Willebrand, T.; Odden, M.; Walton, Z.; Samelius, G.; Ostbye, K.; Soderberg, B.; Spong, G.

2026-07-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.18.739295 medRxiv
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Mortality causes and survival rate estimates from individual follow-ups of GPS-collared animals provide reliable demographic data, but such estimates are rare for red foxes Vulpes vulpes. We used data from 126 GPS-collared red foxes tracked between 2011 and 2019 across a latitudinal gradient in central Sweden and Norway to quantify mortality causes and estimate annual survival probabilities using the Andersen-Gill extension of the Cox proportional hazards model. Hunting was the dominant mortality cause (63%), followed by vehicle collisions (14%), stress or malnutrition (11%), sarcoptic mange (9%), and predation (3%). Annual survival was 0.58 for adults and 0.32 for subadults. Subadults had approximately twice the hazard of adults, males had elevated hazard relative to females, and mortality risk was highest in autumn and early winter. These collar-based estimates are strikingly similar to mark-recovery estimates from the same region nearly five decades earlier, despite an intervening population collapse from sarcoptic mange, subsequent full recovery, and a major decline in harvest pressure. This convergence is consistent with density-dependent regulation at a food-determined and food-limited carrying capacity, suggesting that current harvest levels are not limiting the population. Furthermore, human-caused mortality was approximately four times greater than natural mortality, illustrating that living in close proximity to humans -- which often favours generalist predators such as red foxes -- may also come at a cost of increased mortality risk. Developing validated census methods for red foxes in boreal Scandinavia is identified as a key priority for quantitative population management.

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What we miss shapes what we protect: sea turtles as a case study of grey literature and language bias in an evidence synthesis

Heng, H. W. K.; Buenafe, K. C. V.; Restrepo, J.; Nisthar, D.; Amano, T.; Pilcher, N.; Chu, T. C.; Trong, D. N.; Ellis Arnett, R.; Fong, C.-L.; Herandarudewi, S. M. C.; Hoh, D. Z.; Long, S. L.; Ng, C. K. Y.; Panyawai, J.; Dunn, D. C.

2026-07-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.17.739284 medRxiv
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Evidence-based approaches are increasingly advocated and applied in conservation to provide reliable recommendations for management and policymaking. Although substantial efforts have been undertaken to generate ecological knowledge across languages and publication types, many syntheses and meta-analyses fail to include relevant literature sources; drawing into question their reliability. To assess the extent of biases resulting from ignoring grey literature and non-English publications, we reviewed and synthesised movement and migratory connectivity data for green turtles across Southeast Asia from multiple literature types and eight languages. We identified substantial losses in connectivity information, with at least half of all locations losing more than 88% of their connections, and shifts in demographic representation and sampling techniques when grey literature was excluded from the evidence base. The exclusion of non-English literature had a comparatively smaller impact. The regional connectivity network generated through this study highlights the need for holistic reviews to develop evidence bases to underpin transboundary management of migratory species. Ignoring grey literature and, potentially, regional languages in the development may lead to misallocation of limited management resources. Holistic reviews can further support the establishment of Important Areas for migratory species and inform how we meet and report on global biodiversity commitments.

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Effect of the environment, predation and life history on reproductive synchrony in Perissodactyla

Thel, L.; Huchard, E.; Lukas, D.; Godelle, B.; Dezeure, J.; Venter, J.

2026-06-12 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.09.731243 medRxiv
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Synchronising birth timing with the adequate environmental conditions as well as with congeners can affect juvenile survival and at a later stage, recruitment. In the case of endangered species, understanding the factors driving birth phenology is therefore critical to implement effective conservation and reintroduction policies. Currently, 75% of the Perissodactyla species (odd-toed ungulates) are threatened and some even already had to be reintroduced in their natural habitat. Using a comparative analysis framework, we investigated the effect of nine environmental, life history and predation factors on the synchrony of births in 27 populations of wild Perissodactyla across Africa and Asia. We confirmed the positive effect of environmental seasonality and latitude, as well as the negative effect of environmental productivity on birth synchrony, but we found no significant effect of environmental unpredictability. Life history traits had limited effects on birth synchrony in this order: the intensity of daily reproductive effort and pace of life were non-significant, and migratory behaviour had an unexpected positive association with birth synchrony, suggesting that the link between migration and reproduction might be more complex than the relief of environmental constraints initially expected. We found a positive effect of group size on birth synchrony, in line with the swamping hypothesis to reduce predation risk on neonates, but we found no strong support for a positive effect of predation exposure, measured as a qualitative index combining species-specific sensitivity to predation and site-specific predator abundance. Overall, our findings suggest that individuals adjust reproductive cycles in response to local ecological and social conditions, suggesting that conservation efforts such as reintroductions could benefit from taking into account the extent of the differences between the site of origin and the reintroduction site.

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Conservation of declining Florida ecosystems is critical for an at-risk butterfly

Johnson, A.; Walsh, R. L.; Foquet, B.; Daniels, J. C.; Guralnick, R. P.; Kawahara, A. Y.

2026-08-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.04.742755 medRxiv
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Assessing the availability of protected habitats for at-risk species is needed to determine how the spatial distribution of land cover and land use shapes conservation outcomes. The Loammi skipper (Atrytonopsis loammi) is a nonmigratory, prairie-associated butterfly that has experienced a significant reduction in its formerly widespread southeastern United States distribution over the past several decades. Observations in recent years have been limited to a small number of isolated Florida populations, and it is unclear how much suitable habitat remains and what proportion of that habitat is protected. Here we used publicly available community science data and collected specimens to identify the predominant land cover types occupied by A. loammi. We then quantified the extent to which each of these land cover types overlap with protected areas to estimate the proportion of the butterflys current distribution that occurs on managed conservation lands. Our findings show that A. loammi relies heavily on protected lands, with over half of the total area of the most strongly associated habitats located within protected areas. Given the continued expansion of human-modified landscapes in Florida and the reliance of A. loammi on protected lands, the long-term persistence of A. loammi will likely depend on the conservation and effective management of its remaining suitable habitat. Implications for insect conservationOur results highlight the critical role of protected areas in sustaining at-risk insect populations, particularly for species with limited dispersal and shrinking ranges. More broadly, they suggest that conserving and restoring protected habitats while maintaining connectivity are essential strategies for effective insect conservation in rapidly developing regions.

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Demographic turnover undermines herd immunity in sympatric free-roaming dogs and cats: implications for zoonotic disease control in urban sentinel sites

Norris, D.; Michalski, F.

2026-07-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.28.741324 medRxiv
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Vaccination of free-roaming dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) and cats (Felis catus) remains a major public health challenge. Rapid urbanization forces these species into complex contact zones, where structural failure of pulsed vaccination under high demographic turnover undermines standard One Health interventions. In such cases species-specific intervention cycles are needed to reduce zoonotic disease risk. We integrated field-data within a simulated vaccination campaign to determine how species-specific turnover rates drive the erosion of herd immunity at an Amazonian urban sentinel site (university campus). We monitored free-roaming populations (72 dogs, 75 cats) using a non-invasive photographic mark-resight protocol from 2023 to 2025. We modelled time-to-disappearance using Cox Proportional Hazards and simulated the trajectory of effective vaccination coverage against a 40% herd immunity threshold, distinguishing between loss of vaccinated individuals and recruitment of susceptible individuals. The campus functioned as a high-turnover system, with 72% of dogs and 48% of cats classified as transients. Species significantly predicted persistence (Hazard Ratio = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.33-0.94; p=0.029), with cats exhibiting double the median residency of dogs (432 vs. 193 days). Consequently, the species experienced divergent epidemiological failure modes. For dogs, simulated vaccination coverage collapsed below a 40% herd immunity threshold in 160 days, driven by rapid immunity attrition (the loss of vaccinated individuals). Although cats persisted longer, their effective coverage was eroded by immunity dilution due to recruitment of naive juveniles, creating a 33% gap between cohort survival and population-level immunity by day 365. Annual vaccination campaigns are likely insufficient in this high-turnover urban dog population. Effective One Health zoonotic control strategies must transition from static abundance-based targets to dynamic, species-specific and turnover-adjusted intervention schedules.

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Inbreeding depression and population viability in a recovering population of Mauritius kestrels

Norris, K.; Jones, C.; Groombridge, J.; Henshaw, S.; Morales, H.; Ruhomaun, K.; Tatayah, V.; van Oosterhout, C.; Wang, X.; Zuel, N.; Nicoll, M.

2026-07-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.30.741698 medRxiv
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Inbreeding depression (the reduction in fitness associated with inbreeding) has been demonstrated in a wide range of animals, but despite its ubiquity, is not an inevitable consequence of inbreeding. As a result, there is uncertainty about the extent to which inbreeding depression poses an ongoing risk to endangered species currently experiencing significant demographic recovery. Quantifying inbreeding depression will be critical if we want to understand these risks. A comprehensive quantification of the fitness costs of inbreeding requires detailed individual-based longitudinal data so lifetime impacts can be assessed. Here, we use an extraordinarily detailed long-term dataset on Mauritius kestrels (Falco punctatus) to explore inbreeding depression in a population currently experiencing significant demographic recovery. To do so, we constructed a social pedigree of 1,758 individuals and combined this with 1,240 nest records and 1,411 individual resighting histories to explore lifetime fitness effects over a 30-year period. Inbreeding increased significantly over time as the population recovered before stabilising. Inbred eggs were less likely to survive to fledging. Inbred adult male and female birds had significantly lower annual reproductive success than outbred individuals because of a lower annual egg-to-fledgling survival probability. This resulted in significantly lower lifetime reproductive success in inbred females but not males, which showed a negative trend. Population growth was negative and extinction risk increased slightly at current levels of inbreeding. These impacts will become more severe should inbreeding levels increase in the future, which is highly likely given ongoing genomic erosion. Taken together, our results demonstrate significant fitness costs associated with inbreeding in Mauritius kestrels, which pose an ongoing risk to population viability. This suggests that monitoring and managing inbreeding risks in endangered species will likely be required even in populations that are showing significant demographic recovery in response to conservation interventions.

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Why they move: breeding-site availability drives partial migration in a large terrestrial reptile

Gargano, M.; Garizio, L.; Colosimo, G.; Loreti, P.; Catini, A.; Bracciale, L.; De Luca, M.; Lewbart, G.; Sevilla, C.; Gerber, G.; Gratton, P.; Gentile, G.

2026-08-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.20.745942 medRxiv
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1. Migration is a widespread phenomenon across taxa, yet the ecological mechanisms underlying its evolution and maintenance, particularly whether migratory behaviors are primarily driven by access to spatially restricted breeding sites or by seasonal tracking of trophic resources, remain poorly documented outside birds and large mammals. Despite increasing evidence that reptiles perform seasonal migrations, the ecological mechanisms underlying these movements have rarely been formally tested. 2. The critically endangered Galapagos pink land iguana (Conolophus marthae), endemic to Wolf Volcano, Isabela Island, exhibits partial migration along a steep altitudinal gradient, providing an opportunity to disentangle the relative roles of breeding-site availability, trophic resource dynamics, and thermoregulatory conditions as drivers of migration. 3. We used GPS tracking data from 22 individuals (7 males, 15 females) monitored between 2019 and 2023, combined with high-resolution spatio-temporal models of vegetation productivity and air temperature across the species' altitudinal range, to characterize population-level movement patterns and evaluate competing hypotheses explaining the evolution of this migratory behavior. 4. Movement models revealed a clear pattern of partial migration: 16 out of 22 tracked individuals performed seasonal altitudinal movements between a restricted high-elevation mating area and a larger dispersal area at lower elevation, with males reaching the mating area approximately 48 days earlier than females. The dispersal area remained consistently more productive than the mating area throughout the year, rejecting the prediction that individuals should track the shifting trophic resource peaks. Instead, the mating season coincided with the local productivity peak within the mating area, whereas temperature differences between areas were small (ca. 2{degrees}C) and did not explain migration timing. 5. These results support a site-dependent hypothesis of partial migration over a resource-tracking hypothesis, indicating that access to spatially restricted breeding sites is the primary driver of migration in this species, with local trophic resource dynamics fine-tuning reproductive timing. Providing empirical evidence for the ecological mechanisms underlying migration in a large terrestrial reptile, our results extend site-dependent theories of migration beyond birds and mammals and identify breeding-site availability as a key ecological driver of migratory behaviors across taxa.

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One scale does not fit all: invasive predator identity determines the impact on native prey

Bonet Bigata, A.; Sutherland, C.; Lambin, X.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734748 medRxiv
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O_LIWhen eradication is unfeasible, invasive predator control should evaluate how removal affects ecological responses by native species. Assessments often use total invasive predator abundance to evaluate prey responses, yet intraspecific variation in diet and space use means that some subgroups cause disproportionate impacts. Identifying these problem individuals, and the spatial scales over which their impacts operate, can enable targeted spatially explicit removal to maximise impact reduction. However, despite individual-level information is often already collected during trapping operations it is seldom included when analysing predator impacts, potentially biasing the conservation outcomes expected under blanket removal. C_LIO_LIWe use a novel framework and two decades of invasive predator control data to estimate how individual variation in residency status influences the distance-dependent impacts of invasive American mink Neogale vison on water vole Arvicola amphibius occupancy across two prey surveys. We also develop a sub-model to predict mink residency status for individuals with missing age data. C_LIO_LIThe probability of capturing adult mink decreased with elevation and years of control, indicating that long-term control altered the resident population and demographic composition of mink around water vole sites. C_LIO_LIDistance-dependent negative impacts of mink varied by residency status, becoming negligible at approximately 20 km from water vole sites for resident mink and 2 km for transient. The spatial scale of mink impacts was largest during the first vole survey when resident mink were more abundant, and declined rapidly for the second survey, when mink were less abundant and spatially clustered. Our results suggest that water voles have benefited mostly from reducing resident mink rather than the total population, especially in early control phases. C_LIO_LIManagers can use our framework to develop spatially explicit and impact-based strategies, not restricted to invasive species control, to construct empirically informed management buffers around populations of conservation concern. Long-term efforts will change the landscape and invasive predator contexts, and thus we recommend iteratively updating and re-evaluating management outcome evaluations. We argue that incorporating individual heterogeneity improves our understanding of ecological mechanisms influencing management success but that the suitability of targeted strategies should be evaluated for target socioecological contexts. C_LI

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Snow leopard-mediated apparent competition between wild ungulates and domestic livestock in the Trans-Himalaya

Bajaj, D.; Khanyari, M.; Jaggi, H.; Chhering, T.; Chunit, K.; Gurmet, K.; Thinley, T.; Thuktan, T.; Tobge, R.; Sharma, D.; Mishra, C.; Sharma, R. K.; Suryawanshi, K.

2026-08-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.05.742978 medRxiv
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Across High Asia, snow leopards Panthera uncia share habitats with pastoralists and consume both wild and domestic herbivores. Increasing wild prey is vital for predator conservation, but its effect on livestock depredation is unclear: it could decrease depredation through apparent facilitation or increase it through apparent competition. We investigated this association using a 13-year time series dataset from Upper Spiti Landscape in the Indian Trans-Himalaya. Long-term data on elusive carnivores are rare, making this time series especially valuable for testing predator-mediated interactions. We found higher wild ungulate density was accompanied by significantly greater depredation of free-ranging livestock, and this association remained positive after bootstrapping to account for uncertainty in density estimates. These results suggest snow leopard-mediated apparent competition between wild and domestic herbivores. We recommend conservation efforts that increase wild prey must also integrate effective livestock protection and support strategies to enhance coexistence between predators, prey and pastoralists.

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Gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) survival in southern Illinois, USA

Pershyn, N.; Nielsen, C. K.; Bastille-Rousseau, G.

2026-08-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.20.746046 medRxiv
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Gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) populations in the Midwestern USA have suffered precipitous declines in recent decades, yet they are relatively understudied. However, understanding survival and cause-specific mortality is vital for declining populations and the limited existing survival studies have been performed outside of the Midwest. We equipped 13 gray foxes in southern Illinois with GPS radio collars to investigate their survival and cause-specific mortality. We calculated the Kaplan-Meier 6- and 12-month survival rates to be 0.79 (95% CI: 0.57-1.0) and 0.53 (95% CI: 0.27-1.0), respectively. We recorded 4 mortalities: 1 disease, 1 gunshot, and 2 unknown causes. While our study has a small sample size, it contributes key information on a data-deficient mesocarnivore suffering from a population decline driven by undefined causes. We recommend further research into the survival and mortality of this elusive mesocarnivore.

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Ecological dynamics and stability in the Taï and Comoe national parks in Cote dIvoire

Kouakou, J.-L.; Assemien Cyrille-Joseph, A.; Alphonse, Y. K.; Ouattara, A.; Diarrassouba, A.; Gonedele-Bi, S.

2026-08-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.12.744377 medRxiv
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The accelerated loss of biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa threatens the functioning of tropical ecosystems. In Cote dIvoire, the Comoe National Park (PNCOMOE), a Sudano-Guinean savannah, and the Tai National Park (PNTAI), a dense rainforest, both UNESCO World Heritage Sites, are home to fauna assemblages of global importance, whose long-term resilience remains insufficiently quantified. This study assesses and compares, over a decade (2014-2025), the functional stability of vertebrate communities in these two contrasting ecosystems, using nine metrics covering resistance, invariance, persistence, interspecific synchrony, Tilmans stability, Jacobian resilience and a Composite Stability Index (CSI). Abundance data for 107 vertebrate species were collected via foot transects at PNTAI and aerial surveys at PNCOMOE. The stability metrics were calculated using the R package estar, integrated with an alpha diversity analysis (Shannon H', species richness S, Pielous evenness J') and a Jacobian spectral analysis within a multidimensional ecological assessment. PNTAI (0.708) exhibits significantly higher alpha diversity (H' = 2.82; S = 55.7 taxa) and community resilience 4.6 times higher than in the PNCOMOE (0.153). Its interspecific asynchrony index (0.504) reveals a strong portfolio effect, absent in the PNCOMOE (0.232). In contrast, PNCOMOE exhibits higher temporal invariance (0.382 versus 0.116) and Tilman stability (0.276 versus 0.152), reflecting more predictable dynamics. The overall ICS favours the PNTAI (0.484) and (0.370). The Jacobian analysis detects local instability in both parks (Re({lambda}max) = 5.58 at the PNTAI; 3.73 at the PNCOMOE). The two parks exhibit distinct yet complementary stability architectures: PNTAI relies on dynamic stability based on resilience and interspecific compensation, whilst PNCOMOE demonstrates conservative stability through temporal regularity. The absence of calculable resilience at PNCOMOE suggests a potential crossing of a functional degradation threshold, arguing for urgent restoration interventions and differentiated conservation strategies, tailored to the resilience mechanisms specific to each ecosystem.

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How well is Italian biodiversity represented in red lists and conservation legislation? Taxonomic biases, coverage gaps and the assessment-to-legislation bottleneck

Miccolis, E.; Rasotto, M. B.; De Pascale, F.; Pievani, T.

2026-07-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.30.730850 medRxiv
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Italy, one of Europe's most biodiverse countries, is expected to undergo landscape-wide nature recovery thanks to the EU Nature Restoration Regulation. National red lists represent critical instruments for informing conservation strategies at finer geographic resolutions and prioritizing taxa of national importance; yet the taxonomic completeness of Italian red lists remains unquantified in relation to national biodiversity. Equally, no systematic evaluation has been conducted on the representation of threatened and endemic Italian taxa within European and international conservation directives and treaties. We present the first comprehensive review of threat status and policy inclusion of Italian biodiversity, encompassing animals, plants, fungi, lichens, and algae. We cross-referenced national species checklists with Italian, European, Mediterranean, and global IUCN red lists, alongside policy annexes from the Birds and Habitats Directives, the Bern and Barcelona Conventions, and CITES. Our dataset comprised 76,845 taxa, of which 8,389 are endemic; yet red list assessments exist for only 10% of this total (7,349 taxa, including 1,700 endemics). Conservation policy coverage is even more restrictive: only 1,346 taxa are listed under at least one legislative instrument, with only half of these classified as threatened. This constitutes a compounding double bottleneck with most of the Italian biodiversity remaining both unassessed and unprotected and systematically biasing conservation policy toward an unrepresentative fraction of national biodiversity. We recommend accelerated national assessments and urgent establishment of a national biodiversity priority list founded on transparent prioritization protocols. This would complement ecosystem-based interventions mandated by the Nature Restoration Regulation while correcting for vertebrate-centred biases.