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Animal Conservation

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Animal Conservation's content profile, based on 13 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Continent-wide calibration of camera-trap metrics reveals low population densities in the European wildcat

Nogueira, C.; Alves, B. S. G.; Anile, S.; Barona, J.; Bastianelli, M. L.; Burgos, T.; Catello, M.; Curveira-Santos, G.; Diaz-Ruiz, F.; Federico, P.; Fiderer, C.; Flezar, U.; Gerngross, P.; Gil-Sanchez, J. M.; Henrich, M.; Hernandez-Hernandez, J.; Heurich, M.; Krofel, M.; Maronde, L.; Matias, G.; Moeller, A. K.; Molinari-Jobin, A.; Peters, A.; Port, M.; Premier, J.; Rocha, F.; Sanchez-Cerda, M.; Sayol, F.; Vilella, M.; Virgos, E.; Zimmermann, F.; Ferreras, P.; Jimenez, J.; Monterroso, P.

2026-07-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.06.734798 medRxiv
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Effective conservation depends on demographic metrics that reliably reflect species status, particularly population abundance. For elusive species occurring at low densities, however, such metrics remain difficult to obtain. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are the standardized approach for estimating density in marked populations, but their data requirements, especially the need for multiple spatial recaptures across individuals, often limit applicability in small or data-poor populations. This constraint has resulted in knowledge gaps for some of the most vulnerable species, undermining evidence-based conservation planning and management. Using camera-trap data and SCR-derived density estimates from data-rich populations, we evaluated alternative, less data-demanding metrics and tested the hypothesis: Space to Event (STE), Mean Local Abundance (MLA), and Relative Abundance Index (RAI) exhibit predictable relationships with SCR-derived density; if supported, these metrics can reliably estimate density in populations where SCR models cannot be implemented. We applied this framework to the European wildcat (Felis silvestris), an elusive small felid with highly fragmented populations across Europe, for which density estimates are largely lacking despite growing conservation concern. Across 21 study areas spanning most of the species' range, our results indicate that European wildcats generally occur at lower densities than previously reported. SCR-derived estimates (n=10) averaged 10.32 {+/-} 11.56 inds/100km2, while STE enabled density estimation in five additional data-poor areas (mean 5.52 {+/-} 5.33 inds/100km2). STE showed a strong linear relationship with SCR-derived density (R2=0.98), supporting its use as a viable alternative when SCR is infeasible, although it tended to underestimate compared to SCR, especially at higher densities. In contrast, MLA and RAI showed weaker and non-linear relationships with SCR-derived density (R2=0.65), indicating substantially lower explanatory power and suggesting their estimates are more strongly influenced by confounding processes. By explicitly calibrating alternative metrics across a wide density gradient throughout most of the species' distribution, this study provides a transferable methodological framework for estimating density in low-density wildlife populations and the first continent-wide, standardized density assessment of a carnivore species. From a management perspective, our findings identify populations that may be most vulnerable, particularly those with the lowest densities, and highlight the need to prioritize absolute abundance monitoring.

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Genomic indicators of risk and resilience in global leatherback turtle populations

Osipova, E.; Dutton, P. H.; Bentley, B. P.; Alvarez-Costes, S.; Phillips, K. F.; Adkins, J.; Agyekumhene, A.; Allman, P.; Barragan Rocha, A. R.; Chacon-Chaverri, D.; Duffy, D. J.; Formia, A.; Frey, A.; Gaos, A.; Hamilton, R.; Horne, J. B.; Honarvar, S.; LaCasella, E. L.; Lontoh, D.; Nel, R.; Ortega, A.; Pakiding, F.; Prasetyo, A. P.; Sarti Martinez, A. L.; Piedra-Chacon, R.; Tiwari, M.; Stewart, K. R.; Thome, J. C. A.; Velez-Carballo, E.; Martin, S. L.; Alexander, A.; Wallace, B. P.; Komoroske, L. M.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.15.725529 medRxiv
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Understanding the drivers of genomic health and their consequences for population viability is often overlooked but potentially important to effective conservation amidst the biodiversity crisis of the Anthropocene. Leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) populations have declined globally due to anthropogenic factors, with some populations losing over 90% of their abundance over the past 30-50 years. While conservation efforts have been successful in stabilizing some populations, others continue to decline, and the reasons for these differential trajectories remain unclear. To assess how recent demographic factors, such as population size and decline, influence population genomic health, we combined population monitoring information with medium depth whole-genome and reduced representation resequencing data from globally representative populations. We found that small-stable populations have lower genomic diversity and higher inbreeding than large declining populations, reflecting prolonged small population sizes and limited gene flow. Yet, small-stable populations also show evidence of deleterious allele purging, suggesting genetic resilience. This, combined with lack of detectable genomic erosion over the study period, provides hope for potential recovery of healthy leatherback populations provided that anthropogenic threats are effectively mitigated. However, potential time lags and possible recent increases in inbreeding among close relatives in recently declined populations warrant continued monitoring and assessment. Genomic and abundance-based metrics were less aligned following rapid population declines, emphasizing the different timescales of the evolutionary and demographic processes they reflect, respectively, and the strength in their complementary, integrative use for extinction risk assessments. This also supports that it is not too late to turn the tide for recently declined leatherback populations and that continued investment in conservation efforts and threat reductions are warranted. Collectively, our results highlight how recent and historical demography shapes current genomic health and recovery potential in leatherback turtles, aids understanding of current risks and informs future conservation and management strategies.

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Home range size and population density are negatively correlated in wild felids globally

Bugaud, N.; Anile, S.; Moraru, A.; Devillard, S.

2026-05-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.16.725626 medRxiv
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AimHome range size is a fundamental aspect of animal spatial ecology, and understanding the factors that shape it is important for conservation purposes. Several hypotheses, based on energy needs or competition, assume that home range size negatively correlates with population density. However, this pattern has been little investigated on a global scale, and it remains unclear whether it would stand at both intra- and interspecific levels. To fill this gap, we conducted a global exploration of this relationship at the level of an animal family. Location: Global. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Wild Felidae. MethodsIndividual home range size records (n = 1022) and population density estimates (n = 1061) were retrieved from the literature for 23 felid species across the world. We first investigated the interspecific relationship by modelling the median home range size of a species as a function of its median population density. To study the intraspecific relationship, we spatially merged data points based on their spatial or temporal proximity. We then applied a mixed-effects linear model using species as a random factor. ResultsWe found that home range size was negatively associated with population density, at both interspecific (-1.323 {+/-} 0.180, p < 0.001) and intraspecific levels (-0.569 {+/-} 0.201 to - 0.537 {+/-} 0.201 depending on the merging approach, p < 0.01). Landscape features were also predictors of home range size, without confounding the effect of population density. Main conclusionsSeveral processes likely govern the relationship between home range size and population density: differences in body mass between species may drive the interspecific relationship, whereas the intraspecific pattern is probably explained by conspecific competition. Although more research is needed to quantify their relative contribution, our study highlights a worldwide ecological pattern that exists at multiple biological levels in the wild.

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Effect of the environment, predation and life history on reproductive synchrony in Perissodactyla

Thel, L.; Huchard, E.; Lukas, D.; Godelle, B.; Dezeure, J.; Venter, J.

2026-06-12 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.09.731243 medRxiv
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Synchronising birth timing with the adequate environmental conditions as well as with congeners can affect juvenile survival and at a later stage, recruitment. In the case of endangered species, understanding the factors driving birth phenology is therefore critical to implement effective conservation and reintroduction policies. Currently, 75% of the Perissodactyla species (odd-toed ungulates) are threatened and some even already had to be reintroduced in their natural habitat. Using a comparative analysis framework, we investigated the effect of nine environmental, life history and predation factors on the synchrony of births in 27 populations of wild Perissodactyla across Africa and Asia. We confirmed the positive effect of environmental seasonality and latitude, as well as the negative effect of environmental productivity on birth synchrony, but we found no significant effect of environmental unpredictability. Life history traits had limited effects on birth synchrony in this order: the intensity of daily reproductive effort and pace of life were non-significant, and migratory behaviour had an unexpected positive association with birth synchrony, suggesting that the link between migration and reproduction might be more complex than the relief of environmental constraints initially expected. We found a positive effect of group size on birth synchrony, in line with the swamping hypothesis to reduce predation risk on neonates, but we found no strong support for a positive effect of predation exposure, measured as a qualitative index combining species-specific sensitivity to predation and site-specific predator abundance. Overall, our findings suggest that individuals adjust reproductive cycles in response to local ecological and social conditions, suggesting that conservation efforts such as reintroductions could benefit from taking into account the extent of the differences between the site of origin and the reintroduction site.

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One scale does not fit all: invasive predator identity determines the impact on native prey

Bonet Bigata, A.; Sutherland, C.; Lambin, X.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734748 medRxiv
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O_LIWhen eradication is unfeasible, invasive predator control should evaluate how removal affects ecological responses by native species. Assessments often use total invasive predator abundance to evaluate prey responses, yet intraspecific variation in diet and space use means that some subgroups cause disproportionate impacts. Identifying these problem individuals, and the spatial scales over which their impacts operate, can enable targeted spatially explicit removal to maximise impact reduction. However, despite individual-level information is often already collected during trapping operations it is seldom included when analysing predator impacts, potentially biasing the conservation outcomes expected under blanket removal. C_LIO_LIWe use a novel framework and two decades of invasive predator control data to estimate how individual variation in residency status influences the distance-dependent impacts of invasive American mink Neogale vison on water vole Arvicola amphibius occupancy across two prey surveys. We also develop a sub-model to predict mink residency status for individuals with missing age data. C_LIO_LIThe probability of capturing adult mink decreased with elevation and years of control, indicating that long-term control altered the resident population and demographic composition of mink around water vole sites. C_LIO_LIDistance-dependent negative impacts of mink varied by residency status, becoming negligible at approximately 20 km from water vole sites for resident mink and 2 km for transient. The spatial scale of mink impacts was largest during the first vole survey when resident mink were more abundant, and declined rapidly for the second survey, when mink were less abundant and spatially clustered. Our results suggest that water voles have benefited mostly from reducing resident mink rather than the total population, especially in early control phases. C_LIO_LIManagers can use our framework to develop spatially explicit and impact-based strategies, not restricted to invasive species control, to construct empirically informed management buffers around populations of conservation concern. Long-term efforts will change the landscape and invasive predator contexts, and thus we recommend iteratively updating and re-evaluating management outcome evaluations. We argue that incorporating individual heterogeneity improves our understanding of ecological mechanisms influencing management success but that the suitability of targeted strategies should be evaluated for target socioecological contexts. C_LI

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Comparative efficiency of eDNA, camera traps and scat surveys to detect a semi-aquatic mammal across multiple catchments

Lacombe, S.; Devillard, S.; D'Hollande, L.; Raulet, Y.; Sablain, V.; Barbu, L.; Didier, G.; Mathevet, R.; Miaud, C.; Oyon, C.; Le Pommelet, E.; Richarte, S.; Rouviere, S.; Valentini, A.; Vazzoler-Antoine, N.; Gimenez, O.

2026-04-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.28.721338 medRxiv
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Semi-aquatic mammals lie at the intersection of several key conservation issues such as wetland deterioration or species invasions, and monitoring their distribution in space and time is essential to inform conservation strategies. However, gathering information about their presence is challenging due to their elusive lifestyle and generally low abundance. The Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra), a near-threatened and strictly protected species in Europe, is currently recolonizing part of its historical range. Its high conservation interest, combined with a dynamic more commonly associated with range-expanding or invasive species, makes it a particularly compelling case study. Otter monitoring has traditionally relied on scat surveys, but recent environmental DNA (eDNA) and camera-trapping initiatives have emerged offering promising complementary tools. Yet, these approaches have rarely been formally compared, either to one another or across regions. Here, we compared the efficiency of spraint surveys, camera traps, and eDNA for detecting otters, and assessed how their performance varied among four catchments in southern France where the species is known to be present. All three methods provided otter detections with varying efficiency. Scat surveys were the most effective method, with an average detection probability of 0.71 and no strong variability between catchments. Although camera-traps had the lowest detection rate, they provided detections at two of the four sites where no spraint was found, highlighting the complementarity of these two approaches. Detection rates varied greatly between individual cameras rather than between catchments, underscoring sensitivity to camera-placement. eDNA showed important variability between catchments, with detection probabilities differing by roughly sixfold across regions. All in all, our results highlight differences in efficiency between methods and across environmental conditions, and show the value of combining approaches for future monitoring programs.

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Image surveys, agricultural landowners and residents hold the key: optimizing local ecological knowledge to reveal carnivore communities

Fernandez Vizcaino, E.; Fernandez Lopez, J.

2026-04-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.25.720805 medRxiv
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The choice of appropriate methods to detect species is crucial for biodiversity monitoring. Camera trapping is currently one of the most widely used methods for characterizing mammal communities, although it requires substantial investment in equipment and personnel. In contrast, questionnaires administered to local populations provide a faster and more cost-effective alternative for assessing community composition, but may be influenced by respondent-related biases that compromise data reliability. This study evaluates the concordance between these approaches for characterizing the carnivore community in the Sierra de Segura (Jaen, southern Spain), using Cohens kappa coefficient, while also examining the individual and social factors shaping Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK). We deployed 24 camera-trap stations (144 trap nights) across a 25 km2 area to record carnivore presence. In parallel, we conducted two types of surveys with local residents (n = 103): (i) free-listing and (ii) image-based species recognition, while recording individual and social characteristics of respondents. Free-listing surveys tended to underreport species, whereas image-based surveys showed higher agreement with camera-trap data, although occasionally overestimating species presence. Higher concordance was associated with social factors indicative of closer and prolonged contact with the environment, such as permanent residence and ownership of agricultural land. Mammal communities differed between methods; however, agreement improved when respondents had higher LEK, while species-specific behavioral traits could also influence perception. Our findings demonstrate that image-based questionnaires can provide results comparable to camera trapping when respondents have strong connections to their natural surroundings. These results highlight the importance of both survey design and respondent selection in improving the accuracy of biodiversity monitoring, offering a transferable framework for integrating LEK into conservation protocols across diverse ecosystems. O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=126 SRC="FIGDIR/small/720805v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (35K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@d55c34org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1985c66org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1da576aorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1a10ccb_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

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The lost vultures of Romania: reconstructing two centuries of decline from historical records (Gyps fulvus, Aegypius monachus, Neophron percnopterus, Gypaetus barbatus)

Osvath, G.; Denes, A. L.; Kovacs, Z.; Birau, A. C.; Papp, E.; Jako, G. V.; Zeitz, R.

2026-05-18 zoology 10.64898/2026.05.13.723308 medRxiv
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Romania represents one of the few European Union member states in which all four Old World vulture species historically maintained breeding populations: the Griffon Vulture (Gyps fulvus), Cinereous Vulture (Aegypius monachus), Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus) and Bearded Vulture (Gypaetus barbatus). Until the 2026 reintroduction efforts initiated by Foundation Conservation Carpathia and Rewilding Romania, Romania remained the last EU country whose former vulture guild had not been targeted for active recovery. Despite this exceptional significance in a European conservation context, no comprehensive synthesis of the historical and contemporary distribution of these species in Romania has been undertaken. We conducted a comprehensive review to gather all available vulture occurrence data and present a fully georeferenced database of 1,170 occurrence records spanning 1818-2025. We systematically searched museum collections, historical ornithological literature, modern field surveys and citizen-science platforms. The database documents substantial breeding populations across the Carpathian arc and Dobrogea until the early twentieth century, followed by near-total breeding collapse between the 1920s and 1960s driven by persecution, secondary poisoning and agrarian transformation. In total, 149 confirmed or probable breeding records have been documented for the four species combined, with the most recent confirmed breeding records dating to 1929 (Gyps fulvus), 1929 (Gypaetus barbatus), 1942 (Aegypius monachus) and 1966 (Neophron percnopterus). Non-breeding occurrences increase markedly after 2010, consistent with dispersal from expanding Balkan source populations. The F[a]g[a]ra {square} and Retezat Mountains emerge as the historically most important breeding strongholds for all four species. Our dataset constitutes the most detailed historical baseline currently available for vulture conservation in Romania and is intended to identify key historical sites with high potential for future reintroduction and recovery. Our results show that Romania historically supported the full guild of European obligate scavengers, and that its collapse occurred within barely four decades (1920s-1960s). The dataset highlights the value of reconstructing historical baselines in regions where functional extinction preceded the onset of modern monitoring, and provides an empirical foundation for reassembling a keystone scavenger guild at a continental scale.

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Landscape-scale predictors of mammal abundance and species richness across an extensive Queensland tropical savannas gradient

Kutt, A. S.; Fraser, H. S.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.1101/2025.09.22.677950 medRxiv
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The small mammals in the tropical savannas of northern Australia, have undergone a degree of change in recent decades, best documented in the Northern Territory. Data is limited from northern Queensland and though the same trends are assumed, the topographic and climatic features differ substantially. In this study we examined data systematically collected from 725 sites between 1998-2012 in three bioregions representing a climatic gradient: from semi-arid to monsoon tropical savannas. We investigated via information-theoretic models and model averaging, the relationship between five mammal groupings and three landscape variables (fractional cover green, elevation and vegetation diversity) to elucidate any consistent or different patterns in the mammal fauna. Key patterns included relationships with increasing elevation (critical weight range species richness positively associated with elevation, rodent species richness negatively associated), increasing rodent and dasyurid species richness with vegetation diversity, and lower macropod and dasyurids abundance with increasing fractional cover green. These relationships underscore a need to consider mammal conservation in Queensland with more nuance than in the more topographically inert Northern Territory. Management strategies need to be more attuned to taxonomic and regional differences, to prevent perverse outcomes.

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Rethinking the movement ecology of Andean bears: temperature-driven cathemerality and seasonal space-use cycles

Castellanos, F. X.; Jackson, D.; Mezzini, S.; Brito, J.; Castellanos, A.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.11.720697 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus), South Americas only ursid, is one of the worlds most elusive large mammals, making movement data collection exceptionally rare. Addressing this gap, we present the largest telemetry dataset ever assembled, spanning 19 individuals tracked across three Ecuadorian National Parks over two decades, paired with a novel analytical approach. MethodsWe integrated Continuous-Time Movement Models (CTMM), Auto-correlated Kernel Density Estimators (AKDEs), Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and a diel niche theoretical framework to mitigate biases previously unaccounted for the species in telemetry studies. Fine-scale AKDEs and non-linear movement metrics were calculated to understand seasonal space use and movement behaviors. Speed and diffusion from CTMM and behavioral states from HMM were modelled with environmental covariates to investigate which conditions shape diel and seasonal activity. ResultsPopulation mean home range was 138.2 km2 (95% Confidence Intervals 78.7-225.5), with males (239.8 km2; 182.8-307.5), significantly exceeding females (58.5 km2; 35.5-90.3). Notably, three females exhibited ranges comparable to some males. Weekly and monthly AKDEs uncovered cyclic home range dynamics potentially driven by resource availability, with contractions around corn harvests, mortino and achupalla fruiting, and expansions during paramo transitions. Decoupling speed from diffusion rates showed region-specific behaviors: intensive patch exploitation in Llanganates, broad exploratory ranging in Cayambe-Coca, and suppressed female locomotion in Cotacachi-Cayapas. Statistical analyses identified temperature as a key diel modulator and precipitation as the seasonal driver. Foraging probability increased between 2:00-6:00, large displacements between 7:00-14:00, and nocturnal movement rose significantly under colder conditions. Across diel hypothesis frameworks, bears were classified as cathemeral rather than strictly diurnal, corroborated by camera-trap records from Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. ConclusionsWe propose a cathemeral diel phenotype that responds to thermal fluctuations and situates Andean bears within a broader ursid context of thermoregulatory niche plasticity. This dataset reveals unprecedented resolution of regional and sex specific behaviors that will facilitate and accelerate comparative studies in rapidly changing Andean landscapes. By releasing this long-term dataset as an open resource, we provide a foundation for climate-resilient conservation strategies. More broadly, we advocate for data democratization and invite collaboration.

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The pattern of mammal change in Garig Gunak Barlu (Cobourg) National Park suggests a fire-mediated pathway to decline and one for recovery

Kutt, A.; Edwards, A.; Fraser, H.

2026-05-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.21.726985 medRxiv
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ContextFire is a key driver of wildlife pattern in northern Australia, and in recent decades there has been concerted efforts to return burning practices from unmanaged wildfire to approaches more in tune with traditional approaches to fire management undertaken by First Nations people. AimsWe examined fire pattern (early and late dry season) and distance from coast in relation to mammal pattern on a Cobourg peninsula, as there was some evidence in variable patterns in fire history and mammal persistence in this landscape. MethodsIn this study we examined data collected from Garig Gunak Barlu (Cobourg) National Park, Northern Territory, between 2004 and 2017. We investigated the relationship between all native mammal abundance and species richness, and abundance for eight species, with the three environmental variables (distance from coast, preceding early dry and late dry season burning frequency), using an information theoretic model selection and averaging framework. Key resultsThere is a distinctive change in the fire and mammal pattern with respect to distance from the coast; that is, early and late dry season burning increasing moving inland from the coast, and a concomitant decrease or persistence in some key species on this fire gradient. ConclusionsOur results suggest that fire management in northern Australia still needs targeted research linked to active management to more effectively prevent declines of mammal populations. ImplicationsThe location and shape of Garig Gunak Barlu (Cobourg) National Park provide an excellent opportunity to undertake some natural experiments in strategic burning to investigate improved approaches to conservation in fire-prone landscapes.

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A spatial analysis of Common Pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance with reference to Protected Area coverage in England

Wilde, J. A.; Ozsanlav-Harris, L.; Madden, J.

2026-05-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.06.722883 medRxiv
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The release of tens of millions of common pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) across the UK for shooting may pose an ecological risk to native species and sensitive habitats, particularly if the birds move into protected areas (PAs) such as Special Areas of Conservation (SAC), Special Protection Areas (SPA), and Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). The extent of this ecological risk depends on the abundance of pheasants in these sensitive sites, especially if they are attracted there after the shooting season when game management efforts to retain the birds cease. We used relative pheasant abundance measures derived from British Trust for Ornithology bird atlas data from 3793 2km tetrads across four English counties (Berkshire, Cornwall, Devon, and Hertfordshire) to determine if pheasants preferentially disperse into or reside in areas with greater PA coverage. We analysed relative abundance in both the winter shooting season and the breeding season using a Bayesian occupancy-abundance model, controlling for habitat type and diversity. Our results showed a strong influence of habitat on pheasant abundance, consistent with known habitat preferences. However, we found no evidence of a relationship between relative pheasant abundance and the proportion of ecologically relevant PA coverage in a tetrad. This lack of a relationship was consistent across all four counties and across both the winter and breeding seasons. Our finding suggests that common pheasants do not preferentially disperse into or reside in protected areas compared to surrounding, unprotected land, suggesting that the ecological impacts caused by released pheasants are no more likely to occur in protected areas than in non-protected areas.

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Endangered Species Act listing is linked with greater research effort for U.S. butterflies

Walsh, R. L.; Martin, N. W.; de Bem Oliveira, I.; Daniels, J. C.; Guralnick, R. P.; Kawahara, A. Y.

2026-06-03 zoology 10.64898/2026.05.30.729000 medRxiv
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Conservation strategies for at-risk species can be aided significantly by research on topics such as ecology, life history, and threats, yet research effort is lacking for many species facing elevated extinction risk. Here we investigated whether listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) was associated with research effort for U.S. butterflies, and whether that effort was higher before or after ESA listing. We found that ESA-listed species had significantly more peer-reviewed publications than non-listed species after accounting for species range and taxonomic family. Further, we showed that more papers were published per year after ESA listing than before. These findings confirm that ESA-listed species benefit from greater research attention that can support data-informed conservation efforts. However, the relative scarcity of studies prior to ESA listing, as well as the lack of research for many unlisted, at-risk taxa, underscores the need for proactive, strategic research effort to inform conservation action.

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The dispersal of released pheasants and the risk of their intrusion into English protected areas

Madden, J. R.; Sage, R. B.; Wilde, J. A.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722670 medRxiv
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Large-scale annual releases of pheasants Phasianus colchicus and their subsequent management for recreational shooting create various ecological impacts in the UK. While effects at release sites are fairly well understood, dispersing birds may influence areas farther away. If they enter ecologically important but sensitive protected areas (PAs), any negative impacts could be especially harmful. Using tracking data, from 766 birds across 10 sites, we estimated survival and dispersal of released pheasants and applied these patterns to gamebird release records near English PAs to gauge intrusion risk. Of 2,885 registered release sites, just over half lay within 2 km of a PA. A large number of shoots release relatively few birds while a small number release many birds. Thus, numbers expected to enter a particular PA likely depend both on the size of releases and proximity to the PA. We estimate that, at a national level, a maximum of between 525,000 and 784,000 pheasants might be found within PAs very soon after release, representing around 1.7% of all the pheasants released annually. This number declines over the months after release until in February, we estimate that there are between 131,000 and 196,000 pheasants (0.4% of the total release) might be found within PAs. The critical metric by which ecological damage might occur is their density within PAs. Mean densities soon after release averaged 12.0 birds/ha in PAs within 250 m of release sites. This density declined markedly both in time (as birds died) and space (as they moved further from the pen as potential areas increased). By November, densities in PAs 500-1000m from release sites peaked at 0.5 birds/ha, falling to 0.16 birds/ha in February. These estimated densities are around two orders of magnitude lower than those known to cause strong, lasting impacts within release pens. The results are subject to assumptions about movement behaviour, game management and bias in registration. Despite these constraints, considerable local variation exists, with a minority of high-volume release sites very near PAs posing the greatest potential ecological risk.

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Global threat abatement potential for terrestrial vertebrates

Ridley, F. A.; Bennun, L.; Brooks, T. M.; Butchart, S. H. M.; Dales, M. W.; Hawkins, F.; Jimenez, R. R.; Macfarlane, N. B. W.; Mcgowan, P. J.; Starnes, T.; Tarr, S.; Turner, J. A.; Baisero, D.; Chanson, J.; Cox, N.; Menon, V.; Neam, K.; Pacifici, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Rodriguez, J. P.; Rondinini, C.; Mair, L.

2026-06-16 zoology 10.64898/2026.06.12.731583 medRxiv
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1.AimThe Species Threat Abatement and Restoration (STAR) metric was developed to support setting and measuring progress towards science-based targets for species conservation, in alignment with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The STAR metric quantifies the potential reduction in species global extinction risk achievable through actions to abate threats (START) and restore habitat (STARR). The STAR metric is used across multiple sectors to assess contributions to nature-positive species outcomes and implement action for biodiversity. Here we present a substantially enhanced global estimate of START for terrestrial vertebrates. Developed in response to user demand, this work integrates advancements in methodology and data quality, increased spatial resolution, and addition of reptile species. LocationGlobal Time PeriodCurrent Major taxa studiedTerrestrial vertebrates MethodsSTART was estimated at 1km2 resolution for 9,100 species of threatened and Near Threatened birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles, using IUCN Red List assessments (version 2025-1) and area of habitat (AOH) maps generated using an advanced data-driven methodology and satellite-derived land-cover data. AOH maps were validated using a two-stage protocol using species observation data. ResultsThe six countries with the highest estimated START scores, and therefore the largest individual potential to reduce global extinction risk via tackling threats nationally were Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia, Mexico, Ecuador and Colombia (each contributing over 5% of global estimated START). The threat with the greatest individual potential to reduce extinction risk was annual and perennial non-timber crops (21.2% of global START). Main conclusionsTargeted actions to tackle a few high-impact threats in a few discrete locations, and cumulative effort across multiple areas with lower individual potential, are both required to meaningfully reduce species extinction risk through threat abatement. This global scale estimation of START enables consistent scoping of conservation opportunity over large areas and provides the critical initial data to support planning and action.

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Distribution and diet of Central American Clouded Tiger Cat Leopardus pardinoides oncilla via noninvasive genetics

Rodgers, T. W.; Salom-Perez, R.; Arroyo-Arce, S.; Viquez-Alvarado, E.; Castillo-Caballero, P. L.; Araya-Gamboa, D.; Monteza-Moreno, C. M.; Mooring, M. S.; Vargas, M.; Mock, K. E.

2026-05-29 zoology 10.64898/2026.05.26.727971 medRxiv
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The Clouded Tiger Cat Leopardus pardinoides is a recently recognized Neotropical species for which ecological and natural history data are sparse. Knowledge of species distribution and elevational range are largely based upon camera trap studies, and its diet has not been examined. The objective of this study was to better define the geographical and elevational distribution of the subspecies L. pardinoides oncilla in Central America using genetically confirmed records. We also provide the first diet analysis for L. pardinoides. We conducted extensive surveys for scat samples by visual means and with a scent detection dog across mountain ranges in Panama and Costa Rica, confirmed species identity using Sanger sequencing of mitochondrial DNA, and analyzed diet composition via DNA metabarcoding. Altogether, we collected 195 confirmed L. pardinoides scats. Records were strongly associated with high elevations, with a median elevation of 2805 m, and a maximum of 3422 m. Our findings highlight core habitat for L. pardinoides in the Cordillera Talamanca mountains in the border region of Panama and Costa Rica, and we identified isolated populations from the Central Volcanic Cordillera of Costa Rica and the Central Cordillera of Panama. DNA metabarcoding detected 59 vertebrate taxa. Diet was dominated by small mammals (74% of samples), especially cricetid rodents and shrews. Birds were also commonly detected (35% of samples), while reptiles (13%) and amphibians (1.9%) were less frequent. Estimated median adult prey mass was low (25 g), indicating that the species specializes on small prey. Most vertebrate prey identified were species endemic to montane regions of Panama and Costa Rica. These findings provide valuable ecological and natural history data on Clouded Tiger Cats in Central America that will inform conservation and management of this recently recognized species.

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An Updated Population Estimate For Northern Gannets Across Their North-East Atlantic Breeding Range Following The 2022 Outbreak Of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza

Quinn, L.; Jeglinski, J. W. E.; Auhage, S.; Balmer, D.; Bringsvor, I. S.; Burton, E.; Castenschiold, J. H.; Christensen-Dalsgaard, S.; Danielsen, J.; Dierschke, J.; Ezhov, A. V.; Gudmundsson, G. A.; Hart, T.; Jessopp, M.; Jones, R.; Krasnov, Y. V.; Lorentsen, S.-H.; Palsdottir, A. E.; Provost, P.; Purdie, A.; Morgan, G. D.; Emma, M.; Olsen, B.; Strom, H.; Tierney, D. T.; Wilson, L. J.; Wanless, S.

2026-04-28 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.24.720534 medRxiv
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Northern gannets (Morus bassanus) have been regarded as a seabird success story, due to population increases throughout the 20th and 21st century contrasting with global seabird declines. However, in 2022 gannets experienced a severe outbreak of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) across their global distribution, leading to an urgent need to reassess their population status. This study presents breeding gannet census numbers for 2023/24 from all colonies across the North-East Atlantic metapopulation (Great Britain, Ireland, the Channel Islands, Iceland, Norway, the Faroe Islands, France, Germany, Russia). Gannet numbers decreased by 17% across the North-East Atlantic metapopulation between the 2013/14 and 2023/24 census from 414,598 to 345,854 apparently occupied sites (AOS), a global decrease of at least 13%. The bulk of the reduction in AOS was driven by the largest colonies (>10,000 AOS) each losing tens of thousands of AOS. These figures likely underestimate the impact of the HPAI outbreak worldwide, since most colonies will have increased between the last census in 2013/14 and the 2022 HPAI outbreak, and the Canadian breeding population was last counted pre-HPAI outbreak. Scotland still holds the largest proportion of both the North-East Atlantic metapopulation (59%), and the world population (46%), while Great Britain, Ireland and the Channel Islands together hold 83% of the North-East Atlantic metapopulation and 64% of the world population. This study not only presents an updated population census for gannets in the North-East Atlantic but illustrates the large-scale impacts of a disease outbreak on a seabird species across its global range and highlights the importance of more regular census efforts to better quantify the demographic consequences of such events.

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Tracks, Maps and Gaps: A Testable Research Definition for Critical Chondrichthyan Areas, European Atlantic Insights

Renn, C.; Ciotti, B. J.; Sims, D. W.; Edwards, A.; Turner, R. A.; Hosegood, P.; Sheehan, E. V.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.01.722225 medRxiv
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Designing effective spatial management for chondrichthyans (sharks, skates, rays and chimaeras) requires incorporating critical areas, sites essential for population maintenance, such as reproductive and feeding areas. Yet most area-based measures have been developed without consideration of chondrichthyan habitat use. The Important Shark and Ray Area (ISRA) initiative has been pivotal in designating priority areas through a rigorous, consultative process. To complement this, our study offers researchers a testable definition for generating robust evidence to strengthen future critical area delineations and related management decisions. We define critical areas using three criteria: 1) relative frequency of use, (2) extended within-year occupancy and (3) repeated use across years. This framework enables objective comparison among candidate sites and is generalisable across different critical area types. The definition builds upon established early-life-stage habitat concepts and applies these to broader life-history functions. The utility of this framework is then demonstrated through a systematic review of contemporary peer-reviewed literature of critical chondrichthyan areas in the European Atlantic. The review highlighted 62 critical areas with Strong evidence and 41 areas of Moderate strength evidence, which informed the European Atlantic ISRA selection process. Research effort was concentrated in inshore areas, particularly around the British Isles and Portugal, with biases towards large, threatened and commercially valuable species, whilst chimaeras were notably underrepresented. Early-life stage areas were most frequently identified, whereas resting areas were rarely documented. Evidence patterns and biases are examined in the context of evolving critical area concepts to advance their development and improve the quality and breadth of future research. By outlining a testable definition, identifying key knowledge gaps, and proposing research and reporting guidelines, this work enhances the consistency, comparability, and spatial coverage of future chondrichthyan habitat research to support its application to conservation planning.

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Legacy Effects of Land-Use Land-Cover Change on Species Distribution Dynamics: Evidence from a landscape of diverse biogeographic crossroads

Paul, S.; Borzym, V.; Prestridge, H.; Jiao, W.; Gonder, M. K.

2026-06-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.01.729351 medRxiv
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Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is a dominant driver of biodiversity loss, yet its long-term role in restructuring species distribution remains poorly understood due to limited historical baselines and the scarcity of long-term analyses across multiple ecological transition zones. Here, we investigate nearly two centuries of land-use change across a biogeographically diverse region to evaluate how landscape transformation has reshaped vertebrate distribution range dynamics, and whether ecoregional context, habitat specialization, and taxonomic identity better explain these patterns than recent landscape change alone. Using Texas, a biogeographic crossroads with diverse ecoregional zones and a long history of intensive land-use, we quantify distributional changes in 100 native vertebrate species (mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians), using Vernon Baileys late nineteenth-century surveys as a historical benchmark. We integrated multi-temporal LULC datasets with spatial and multivariate analyses to assess how habitat change, species traits, and regional context relate to patterns of range expansion, contraction, and redistribution. We show that Texas has undergone non-linear landscape transformations characterized by early agricultural expansion followed by cropland abandonment, shrubland encroachment, and rapid urbanization. Range contractions were most pronounced among amphibians, reptiles, and habitat specialists, whereas generalist species and many birds exhibited greater range stability or expansion. Across taxa, primary habitat, vertebrate class, and ecoregional context emerged as the strongest predictors of distributional change, underscoring the importance of historical and environmental context over simple measures of habitat loss and fragmentation. These results indicate that while long-term LULC change establishes the underlying landscape template, species responses are structured by ecological context, including habitat affinity, taxonomic traits, and regional environmental gradients. By linking historical landscape trajectories to contemporary biodiversity patterns, this study provides a transferable framework for investigating how land-use legacies influence species distributions and community reassembly in heterogeneous human-dominated landscapes, highlighting the importance of adaptive capacity and connectivity for conservation planning.

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Monitoring data indicates some annual change in the mammal fauna at Nitmiluk National Park between 2005 and 2018 but a reduction in effort confounds any interpretation

Kutt, A.; Edwards, A.; Fraser, H.

2026-05-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.21.726992 medRxiv
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ContextThe decline, extirpation and extinction of Australias mammal fauna is without peer. In recent decades long term monitoring has revealed tragic patterns in iconic locations such as Kakadu National Park. AimsPast studies have described universal patterns across multiple national parks in the Northern Territory, linking the declines to fire management; however, much of the data in Nitmiluk National Park do not cover the period that encompasses this decline. We examine this data separately to look for patterns with respect to fire history. MethodsWe examined standardised mammal survey data collected in Nitmiluk from 2005 to 2018, to look for correlates with year of survey, time since last burnt, and the frequency of early season and late season burns. Key resultsDespite subtle difference in methods over the years, we found there were some annual changes in the mammals, but little discernible pattern of change correlated to fire regime (which itself indicated an improvement in seasonality, and the extent of burning overall over this period). Instead, there was a distinct reduction in the survey effort. ConclusionsOur study provides further support for the pitfalls of ecological monitoring losing focus, being decoupled from management actions, and allowing ill-conceived changes in design. We recommend that future monitoring at Nitmiluk should focus on key management questions (i.e., fire), best methods for target taxa (i.e. camera traps), more regular and flexible sampling linked to a conceptual model, and integration and co-design with the local land managers, rangers and Traditional Owners. Short SummaryRe-examination of the mammal data collected in monitoring sites at Nitmiluk National Park between 2005 to 2018 indicated little pattern with fire regime over time, and instead indicated that a reduction in effort, had reduced the ability to find pattern With sparse and declining mammal population in northern Australia, future monitoring needs to be focused on key management questions.